With two weeks to go, the polls for the presidential election are essentially tied, with neither candidate ahead by even a single percentage point, according to a New York Times poll that examined the averages of the five key battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Partisan organizations like the conservative Fabrizio, Lee & Associates have former president Trump leading by two to three points, while the more centrist polls, such as Big Village, show Harris leading by seven points with a 52-45 margin.
In short, it is too close to call. Whether Kamala Harris loses the election due to her stance on Gaza remains to be seen. From the beginning, given the deeply problematic authoritarian aspirant Donald Trump, this election has been the Democrats to lose, and the crux of the matter has been U.S. foreign policy in Palestine and the broader Middle East. It’s simply baffling. All Harris has to do to win is place an arms embargo on Israel and adhere to U.S. law regarding military aid to countries perpetrating human rights violations. She is campaigning on “the rule of law” and her record as a prosecutor while flouting any pretense of legal adherence for a country actively committing genocide.
The loss of the Arab American votes in key states like Michigan has forced Vice President Harris to court the votes of moderate Republicans disaffected by Trump, leading her to walk back from definitive progressive positions like banning fracking and transgender rights.
Aside from vague promises to protect women’s rights, there is very little in her platform that could be considered “left-wing.” In fact, Harris is now advocating for a bipartisan Cabinet that will include Republican officials. Imagine Donald Trump promising his supporters that he will include Democrats in his administration.
All of this indicates that American politics as a whole are shifting right at blazing speed. Gone is all pretense of environmental protections, defunding police, better immigration policies, LGBTQ+ protections, and the ending of foreign wars. Harris’ proponents likely tolerate her back-peddling due to the justifiable fear of a second Trump presidency.
It’s no wonder, then, that many Americans who loathe Trump as a fascist billionaire are choosing to opt out of the duopoly in its entirety. Again, all Harris has to do is refrain from giving full-throated support to an ongoing genocide that the Biden Administration has the power to end in days. Would a Trump presidency be worse for Palestine and worse for Americans? Demonstrably so. Yet many disaffected Americans are done being threatened by that. If Harris loses, the victim blaming will begin.
Join us tonight on State of Play to explore the thorny controversies surrounding the impending U.S. presidential election and to predict how 2025, regardless of which candidate is victorious, will be far worse than 2024. Steel yourselves; there will be gallows humor.
Greg Stoker is a former US Army Ranger with a human intelligence collection and analysis background. After serving four combat deployments in Afghanistan, he studied anthropology and International Relations at Columbia University. He is currently a military and geopolitical analyst and a social media “influencer,” though he hates the term.
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